Q3 2023 Log
2023-10-31
I started a new job in April, and it's been half a year since my last investment log. Starting in August I've been tracking monthly buys and sells on Instagram. Before that, my habit of "buying frequently" led to an overly scattered portfolio. Since I started documenting, that's improved considerably — and I can now look back at which decisions and judgments were off.
Thoughts on Q3 2023
US stocks started declining in mid-July, in line with the Fed's projected recession from earlier in the year — though the AI-driven rally in Q2 drew in a lot of speculators. Compared to the relentless sell-off at the start of the year, these three months feel more like the rate hikes are achieving their stated goals. In November the Fed hinted that hiking is done, which calmed investors — but I still think it's too early to chase a rebound.
Aug–Oct Cash Purchases
| Ticker | Company | Current % | Max % |
|---|---|---|---|
| O | Realty Income | 5.9% | 6% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | 3.29% | 3.5% |
| MCD | McDonald's | 2.94% | 3.5% |
| BRK.B | Berkshire | 4.5% | 8% |
| 3533 | Lotes | 15.37% | 15% |
| 2454 | MediaTek | 0.85% | 2% |
🏠 O — Realty Income
A well-known monthly-dividend REIT (54-year streak), with 25 consecutive years of dividend growth. REITs are required by law to distribute at least 90% of taxable income as dividends. O's top 10 tenants include Dollar General, Walgreens, 7-Eleven, Dollar Tree, Wynn Resorts, FedEx, LA Fitness, Sainsbury's, and B&Q — quite a lineup. One thing that stood out in the annual report: this company only has 395 employees.
As North American consumer spending softens there'll be some impact, but a company that has survived so many financial crises earns its place on my "don't know what to buy this month, just buy this" dividend stock list. As long as the yield is above 6% and cash flow fundamentals look fine, I'll take the opportunity to add.
In October, the monthly dividend yield reached 6.27% — the last time it was this high was the COVID meltdown in March 2020. My position is now 6%, but I'll add more if the yield reaches 7.5%.
☕️ SBUX — Starbucks
I've been waiting for Starbucks to pull back. The stock has been falling since April, weighed down by China operations and US union activity. The fundamentals over the past decade have been solid, but with consumer spending under pressure from the recession, the stock likely has more downside short term. I'll add 5% increments on each dip. (The November earnings came in really strong and the stock shot up — plan to trim if it exceeds my target by more than 2%.)
🥤 KO — Coca-Cola
Beyond the original Coke, Coca-Cola owns a vast portfolio of beverage brands — all the sodas you know: Coke, Sprite, Fanta, sparkling water brand Schweppes, the tea brand Chun Cui He (原萃), Minute Maid, and more. Their main competitor is PepsiCo. Beyond bottled drinks in supermarkets, restaurants and cinemas that want to offer "Coke" need Coca-Cola's license for the syrup and trademark — generating revenue across every channel.
Recent sales have tracked retail and entertainment sector trends closely. But we've entered a genuinely attractive zone: P/B is below the 10-year average and yield is around 3.25%. I plan to keep adding until the position reaches 3.5%.
🍔 MCD — McDonald's
Following the sugary drink, this month I added the fast food giant. McDonald's business model isn't purely about selling food — they typically own the land and building of each franchise location and collect rent from franchisees, plus sizable franchising fees. Expansion speed is the key driver of revenue.
The past few years hit McDonald's hard — they closed 855 restaurants in Russia after the 2022 invasion. Global count stands at 40,275, with aggressive expansion plans ahead. Despite lower operating cash flow and reduced cash from buybacks, they've maintained 47 consecutive years of growing dividends. P/E has come down to around 22.5 (still on the high side), but P/B, P/E, and yield are all at attractive levels. (Flew back up before I could finish adding — hoping for another chance.)
👴🏻 BRK.B — Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway is the holding company Buffett took control of in 1965 — originally a near-bankrupt textile company trading at a very low valuation. A historic deal.
BRK has two share classes: BRK.A (with voting rights, extraordinarily high price) and BRK.B — the first US stock I ever bought 🤩. Berkshire doesn't pay dividends; instead it reinvests earnings and acquires businesses. I've been watching since 2020 when P/B dipped below 1.3. Last added in June 2022 — this round I'm targeting 8%. (In November, the Fed's pause announcement sent everything surging and I missed the entry 😢.)
⚙️ Lotes 3533
Lotes (Jiaze) designs and manufactures connectors (sockets). Fundamentals have been very stable for the past decade. I've been waiting for the stock to touch its 3-year support line — the blue arrows in the chart mark each buy point, the orange resistance line is just reference. After a year of waiting, August finally gave me the entry.
📀 MediaTek 2454
I've long had my eye on this high-paying company 😅. They earn more every year, and while I don't expect a repeat of the 2021–2022 performance, watching all those talented engineers put in the work — I have to invest! Starting September, I set up a recurring monthly buy of TWD 3,000 for one year.
Aug–Oct Key Sales
| Ticker | Company | Current % | Max % |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2.3% | 3% | |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| ADBE | Adobe | 0% | — |
I was actively buying in January. When the AI stocks exploded in August, valuations felt excessively optimistic, so I started trimming.
The fundamentals aren't bad — revenue, cash flow, and buybacks are all steady. But for a tech stock, the growth hasn't been explosive. I've always felt that Google doesn't really know how to "make money" — for all its dominant products (Chrome, YouTube, Gmail, Docs), the revenue doesn't seem proportional to usage.
Compare that to Satya Nadella at Microsoft, who since taking over in 2014 has truly been a decade-long transformation — integrating browser and Office products, acquiring GitHub, becoming OpenAI's largest investor, and building out Azure. Microsoft's revenue has soared. Google, by contrast, feels like it's been too focused on serving users rather than monetizing them.
Amazon
Also heavy buying in January, and partial trim in August — though that was mainly because the position had drifted over target. Cost basis now at $73.16. If a year-start-level opportunity comes around again I'll add back.
Adobe
Purely a judgment call: Adobe's products haven't kept pace with the competition. Some notable challengers:
- Figma: vector graphics editor + prototyping tool, integrates with AI and can connect to builder.io to generate code.
- Canva: design platform for social graphics, presentations, posters, and documents. My niece mentioned her school uses it — Canva launched an education version that's now licensed at the elementary and middle school level. The interface is incredibly intuitive. Highly recommended.
- Procreate Dreams: animation app from the Procreate team, which operates primarily on iPad. Very intuitive. The new Procreate Dreams produces remarkably smooth tweened animations.
Adobe's update cadence hasn't matched my expectations, so I exited the position entirely.
Aug–Oct Options Activity
Still learning options, but documenting for future accountability:
⚙️ Intel
I'll admit there was a speculative element to Intel. Revenue, free cash flow, and other metrics have been declining since 2022, though the company has continued buybacks and is reassessing its problems. I ran 3 rounds of Sell Call during the LC period; total gain: +USD 164. But without the Sell Puts I could have netted +USD 450 by mid-September… A painful lesson. No more randomly locking myself in with Sell Calls.
⚙️ TSM — TSMC
Current Portfolio Allocation
Taiwan Stocks
| Category | Approx. % |
|---|---|
| Semiconductors — TSMC, MediaTek | 27.5% |
| Networking — Accton | 34% |
| Electronics/Computers — Lotes, Advantech | 44% |
| Banking — E.Sun Financial | 2.5% |
| Consumer — Cheng Loong | 1% |
| ETF — Fubon Corporate Governance | 10% |
US Stocks
| Type | Approx. % |
|---|---|
| Dividend stocks | 52% |
| Growth stocks | 36% |
| ETF | 12% |